The Ozempic Economy: Weight-Loss Frenzy Reshaping Global Markets

We are used to think that innovation is the one force that pushes economic growth, while geopolitical turmoil is the force that may bring in uncertainty and disruptions. It is less likely for anyone to think that one source of innovation may be the repurposing of a diabetes drug for the use of weight loss.

Ozempic, a medication classified as a GLP-1 receptor agonist (glucagon-like peptide-1), was initially developed to treat type-2 diabetes. Approved by the FDA in 2017 in the USA, it is administered as a weekly injection that helps lower blood sugar levels. The drug mimics the action of a natural hormone that signals satiety to the brain, effectively reducing appetite as hormone levels increase. Weight loss was not its intended use, but it emerged as a notable side effect. Today, Ozempic and similar medications are recognized as groundbreaking tools in promoting weight loss.

This is bringing forward several economic transformations.  From revitalizing local economies in Denmark to promising billions in productivity gains in the UK, these “miracle jabs” are affecting the global economy in more than one way.

In Denmark

Let’s start from a large effect in a small corner of the world.  Kalundborg, in Denmark, was once a modest port town, but is also where pharmaceutical company Novo  Nordisk has had a production plant for many decades. With the rise in demand for this drug, Kalundborg has been chosen to become the epicenter of Novo Nordisk’s production of semaglutide. The company’s valuation has been skyrocketing together with the rise in demand for its products. It is now one of Europe’s most valuable firms, with pre-tax profits soaring to $17.8 billion in early 2025.

This success has had profound ripple effects. Kalundborg, a 50-thousand inhabitant municipality, 16,000 of which live in the main town. The locality alone has seen a 27% growth rate, with 1,250 new jobs created at Novo Nordisk’s plant and thousands more in construction and local services. The town’s economy has boomed, from supermarkets reporting five-fold increases in sales to infrastructure projects like a new motorway and housing developments underway.

The effect is so large (and Denmark so small, someone would note) that this is having an effect also on the country’s national account. On a national scale, Denmark’s GDP growth—2.5% in 2023 and projected to reach 2.9% in 2025—is being driven in large part by pharmaceutical exports. Novo Nordisk is now the country’s largest taxpayer and accounts for a fifth of all new jobs. The influx of foreign capital has lowered borrowing costs by strengthening the Danish krone. Some economists say that about one quarter of the country’s economic growth can be attributed to this single drug.

Surely this is also reminiscent of the risks of a country relying so much on one single company, just like Finland depended on Nokia (and, to a lesser extent, Sweden on Ericsson). The Danish economy’s increasing concentration raises questions about long-term resilience and political influence.

Beyond Denmark

The economic effect of  semaglutide  goes beyond the windfall for the producer and its host country. A recent study presented at the European Congress on Obesity suggests that providing weight-loss jabs to all eligible individuals in the UK could boost the economy by £4.5 billion annually. The exact figure may be disputed, but the mechanism is fairly straightforward: healthier individuals are more productive when at work, are less likely to take sick days, and contribute more to unpaid labor like childcare and volunteering.

The study is a meta analysis of over 2,600 clinical trial participants and found that semaglutide users worked an additional five days per year and performed 12 more days of unpaid work. These gains translate to an average net productivity value of £1,127 ($1,528) per person. With 4 million people in the UK eligible for treatment, this adds up to a final figure with relevant macroeconomic implications.

However, the cost-benefit equation is not without complexity. While the societal gains are promising, the high cost of the drugs—especially in countries like the US where prices exceed $1,000 per month—means that universal access remains financially unfeasible. The macroeconomic impact may be huge, but the maths may not add up if the cost of the drug is to be footed by socialized healthcare systems in Europe. Experts like Professor Naveed Sattar from the University of Glasgow (UK) highlight how the high cost of the drug implies that the societal benefits may still be lower than the costs, and that subsidized treatment may be advisable (from a public health perspective) only for those with the highest medical need.

The societal impact is still great: some other study linked the use of semaglutide also to decreased alcohol consumption, adding up further social benefits and potential savings for the government coffers if its use were to spread more widely.

The economic implications of the Ozempic boom extend beyond national borders. Globally, the size of the market for weight-loss treatments has been estimated to increase dramatically, reaching $150 billion by 2030, a huge pie that many companies are trying to earn a slice of. This sort of pharmaceutical gold rush is triggering research that exploits similar mechanism as the ones (inadvertently) triggered by Ozempic.

This is especially relevant in the largest market in the world, which also happens to be a country with very high obesity rates. In North America obesity rates hover around 40%, the economic drag from related health conditions is immense. The normalization of these drugs—spurred by celebrity endorsements and social media—has accelerated their adoption, even as regulatory bodies grapple with their off-label use. A simple graph of TikTok videos on Ozempic shows how widespread has been the impact on society of this new drug.

Figure 1. Source: Truckdrugs

Yet, the rise of the “Ozempic economy” also raised ethical and structural questions in the US, where healthcare is provided through private insurance mechanisms for the most part. Who gets access to these drugs? Will their benefits be equitably distributed, or will they exacerbate existing health disparities? Obesity is not evenly distributed throughout society, with higher rates emerging in the lower part of the income distribution, which is more likely to have individuals without insurance or with less generous healthcare plans. Prices as well may be pushed further up if demand outpaces supply, also considering the structural difference of Noth American pharmaceutical markets with respect to the European one, with the US characterized by higher prices and Europe leveraging on its single (or few) payer system being to  bargain hard and lower drug prices.

Long-term risks are also to be considered. Side effects and dependency are concerns, and the novelty of the use of this drug for weight-loss purpose implies that these are mostly unknown at the moment.

Conclusions

The rise of semaglutide-based drugs highlights a novel link between public health and economic growth. The obesity “epidemic” and the potential for a successful pharmaceutical fix have huge economic implications both in terms of private benefit, public finance effects and macroeconomic outcomes.